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Turkey of the week overvalued banking group – MoneyWeek

2020年3月26日 | | in bckbet会员登录

Isuspectthatpartofthesectorsrecentbouncehasbeendowntoareversalofpastwrite-offsandalsotheeasingoftheUSmark-to-marketaccountingrules。

Neithertellsusmuchaboutfutureperformance,whichforStandardCharteredcouldbeweakerthanexpected。

Over80%ofits$179bnloanbookisinAsian,AfricanandMiddleEasternmarketsthatarein,orentering,recession。

Nearly30%ofitsloansareinSingaporeandKorea–bothexpectedtocontractbynearly5%in2009。

Overall,ifyouweighttheloanbookbygeography,itsabouttobehitbya2%dropinGDPcomparedwith2。

9%growthlastyear。

Thismaybelessthanthe2。

8%slumpsufferedduringthe1998Asiancrisis,butitshowsthechallengesahead。

ThesefactorswereprobablythereasonforlastNovembers£1。

8bn,deeplydiscounted,rightsissue(at390p)。

Thefirmhadtoprotectitscapitalratios(proformatier1of8。

9%)beforethewaveofdefaultsstrikeshome。

Whetherthisamountwillbesufficientisunclear。

Sure,sofarStandardCharteredhasescapedmostofthesubprimecarnage,butwiththelikesofChina,SingaporeandIndiasufferingexportdeclines,Ibelievetheworstisstilltocomeforthefirm。

In1998,assetimpairmentsrocketedtothreetimescurrentlevels–enoughtowipeoutabout75%ofitsprofits。

Soisthestock,tradingona2009multipleofabout11andaprice/bookratioof1。

2,atasignificantpremiumtopeers?

Isuspectsomeinvestorsarekiddingthemselvesthattherecessionwillbemuchshorterandshallowerthanexpected。

Inaddition,manyfundsaretryingtojumpbackonboardthebankingbounce,thussustainingtherallypastjustifiablelevels。

IdvalueStandardCharteredatonetimesnetassetsoraround£8。

00pershare,wellbelowthecurrentprice。

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